On 12-13 October 2024, Pugwash held a workshop in Belgrade focused on nuclear risks, deterrence, and arms control. This was the second meeting in the Pugwash European Security series, with 20 international participants convened to engage on the challenges to international security and the European order principally stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war.
It is clear that the Ukraine-Russia war remains dangerous with high risks of escalation. Opportunities for off-ramps and a resolution appear distant. In the near term, the US election in November 2024 will potentially have a consequential bearing on the status of the ongoing conflict. With no overlapping interest of the Russians and Ukrainians to negotiate, and no clarity on who could monitor or guarantee a ceasefire, the most obvious scenario is a protracted conflict. Eventually, it is likely that a longer-term armistice arrangement would be the foundation of a post-war European settlement, one that should prioritize stability and predictability with Russia.
At the same time as the balance of power in Europe is being re-calibrated, there is a three-peer strategic competition globally. The emerging nuclear arms race is greatly complicated by force entanglement across multiple domains, rendering it much harder to compartmentalize arms control processes at the official level. Participants agreed that attempts to maintain strategic stability, pursue nuclear arms control and prepare conventional arms control must be intensified in expert circles, which can help to avoid provocative misunderstandings or crisis instability.
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs 