21 June 2024
Current world conflicts involve, in various roles, countries that possess nuclear weapons: Russia, Israel, US, UK, France. The most serious nuclear risk today is related to the war in Ukraine. In particular, Russian officials and commentators have spoken several times about the possibilities of the use of nuclear weapons if threatened by direct attacks on Russia’s territory or critical nuclear forces infrastructure.
Further destabilizing rhetoric and actions have been evident, including references by Russian officials and commentators to the possible use of the so-called ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons,[1] as well as occasional references to the possibility of a third world war; Russian military exercises that foresee the use of nuclear weapons have been reportedly performed; and Russian nuclear weapons have been recently deployed in Belarus. In NATO, there has been public discussion about increasing the number of nuclear weapons and the level of alert. Some personalities in the US and Israel have even suggested the possibility of using nuclear weapons in Gaza, making more dangerous and horrifying an already inhumane situation; such casual threats of the use of nuclear weapons serves only to lower the threshold for their use.
In sum, there is wide consensus that the risk of a nuclear war is higher than at any time in the recent past. The probability of an actual use of nuclear weapons may still be relatively low but even a very small probability should be seriously considered as an unacceptable risk due to the catastrophic effects and likelihood of escalation to a larger nuclear conflict. As the wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue, and the involvement of Russia and other countries becomes more significant, the risks of the use of nuclear weapons becomes alarmingly high.
With these premises in mind – and considering the enormous human suffering in the present situation for the involved populations and globally – we ask all political leaders to:
- Agree on immediate ceasefires in the Ukraine and Gaza wars;
- Call for comprehensive international negotiating processes with the participation of all parties involved, including international conferences to resolve the political situation and bring a stable peace in Ukraine, Europe, Russia, Israel, and Gaza;
- Call for resumption of negotiations between the US and Russia on the reduction of nuclear weapons before the New START expires;
- Commit to their obligations under the NPT and press for serious engagement in the arms control process between P-5 states.
Such processes may be difficult, but all effort must be made to have such a dialogue. Pugwash stands ready to support and contribute to negotiations that would end the conflict, taking into considerations the needs of all the parties involved.
Restarting the arms control process can be a positive element to facilitate the improvement of the relations between NATO countries and Russia. Nuclear weapons dialogue and engagement on security relations is important in several other regional contexts such that the negative example of the conflict in Ukraine is not followed: the rivalry between India and Pakistan, the antagonism between the two Koreas, and relations between Western states and China.
The dramatic consequences of a nuclear war have been discussed for several decades by scientists. As the Russell-Einstein manifesto of 1955 reminds us: “Shall we… choose death, because we cannot forget our quarrels? We appeal, as human beings, to human beings: Remember your humanity, and forget the rest.”
Hussain Al-Shahristani, Pugwash President
Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Pugwash Secretary General
Karen Hallberg, Chair of the Pugwash Council
[1] The distinction between tactical and non-tactical nuclear weapons is ill-defined and the use of so-called tactical nuclear weapons may very well start a nuclear escalation.
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs 