On 12-13 April 2024 Pugwash convened a workshop in Istanbul to assess opportunities for galvanizing nuclear arms control. Seventeen experts from the United States, Russia, China, and Europe – and three further virtual presentations – engaged in fruitful discussions about the international security landscape aimed at identifying an agenda for future nuclear risk reduction.
Absent the political will to engage in negotiations on a replacement for the New START treaty, participants were clear that the contours of how the Russian war against Ukraine is terminated will largely shape the appetite for, and determine the scope of, any future bilateral negotiations. A key point is that the Ukraine war is only one – albeit front and centre – stumbling block in pursuing arms control amid states’ nuclear modernization programs. Not least, the domestic political context in relevant capitals will shape prospects of achieving negotiated agreements and there appears not to be powerful coalitions of interests in Moscow, Beijing, or Washington at this time.
In this environment, any post-war reshaping of the European security architecture will need to bolster strategic stability and reintroduce arms control accords to ensure undiminished security for all states including Russia, as well as factor in the impact on the Asian theatre. Participants noted that the Pugwash setting provides a valuable means of communication at this challenging time and a useful table for brainstorming de-escalating steps for all sides.
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs 